Come In, Houston

Looks like the Jazz’s playoff situation won’t be decided until around 11 p.m. on Wednesday night – the final game of the season.

It’s still rather complicated figuring out whom the Jazz will meet in the first round.

As it now looks, Utah, Dallas and New Orleans may end up in a tie. Assuming the Jazz beat Golden State and the Clippers at home and lose on the road to the Lakers, they’ll finish 49-33. Dallas has a game at New Orleans and home games against Minnesota and Houston. Assuming the Mavs lose to New Orleans and Houston and beat Minnesota, that makes them 49-33 also. Then there’s the Hornets. If they beat Dallas and lose to Houston and San Antonio, they’ll also end up 49-33.

In the event of a three-way tie, the seedings are determined thusly:

1.Division champs.

2.Winning percentage in games among tied teams.

3.Winning percentage against teams in own division (if all tied teams are in same division).

4.Winning percentage against teams in own conference.

5.Winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including team that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
6.Point differential between offense and defense.

Since none of the three teams is a division champ, that means it would go to winning percentage in games among tied teams. Utah would win that tiebreaker, because it is 5-2 vs. New Orleans and Dallas this year, better than either of the other two.

Which means the Jazz could still wind up a sixth seed, and could still end up facing Houston.

If they finish the way I suspect, they’ll have lost six of their final 10 games of the season. However, the Jazz did exactly the same in 2007, then went on to make the Western Conference Finals. The first-round opponent? Houston, naturally.