BYU, Utah and Playing the Senior Card
Now that BYU is in the Sweet 16, there will be — and has already been — a slew of stories about the age and experience of the Cougars.
It comes up every bowl game, every NCAA Tournament and every other time BYU does well.
This year the main focus is on Jimmer Fredette, a senior. That’s a lot of experience, which he has wisely used. Then there’s Jackson Emery, a senior who spent two years on an LDS mission, as well. (Interestingly, BYU doesn’t list the birth dates of its players in its media guide, just their experience.)
I have a theory on age and experience: Most of the time it’s a great help for a college team, but it’s hard to tell how well those players will do in the NBA. By virtue of the extra time they spend in college, older players often rise to the top of the college ranks. Yet that doesn’t mean they’ll be great pro players. Usually the best athletes are in the NBA by the time they’re 20 or 21.
Look at Luke Nevill, who played four seasons at Utah. He was the Mountain West player of the year, yet didn’t get a sniff from the NBA. Britton Johnsen, Josh Grant and Alex Jensen were conference players of the year, as well, yet played little or not at all in the NBA. (OK, so was Keith Van Horn and he had a long pro career.)
BYU’s Rafael Araujo was a bust in the pros. Then there are the many USU players who starred in college but didn’t play in the NBA.
To summarize, we tend to overrate a lot of players who play four years in college, because they look so good. Meanwhile, a lot of the best competition has already moved on to the pros.
Do I think Fredette will make it in the NBA? Yes, and he’ll probably play 12 seasons. Just don’t expect him to dominate the way he did in college.
